Last year, I and my colleagues in the experience of HTC Vive (virtual reality), while trying to curse, and my heart is very excited.
At that time we would like to technology products to be a "Fen Tan index", which means that when the trial technology products, the most number of curse the product is a certain representative, when HTC Vive's lying slot index is very high, colleagues even Little Demo time all scolded to the end - "lying groove, there is this operation," the lying groove.
This year, I see some of the media evaluation of Nintendo's new handheld Switch and "Zelda legendary wilderness", also made a fresh vocabulary, can be understood as "time freshness", meaning that when you experience a product , The more experience the more open to open the new continent, and deep inside them ... ... then its time the higher the freshness, that is, after you use a long time after the discovery is inseparable from it.
I think as long as the "lying groove index" is high enough, "time freshness" is also high enough, a digital product may become more than half of the.
To tell the truth, today I write a variety of smart speaker technology, products, experience the manuscript, in fact, very much like last year I write VR (virtual reality) when the feelings - "lying groove, lying groove, lying slot" Buy buy buy ...
To be sure, almost all of the Chinese Internet giants and artificial intelligence companies are trying to show up on the category of smart speakers, and this "see", "tangible", "hear" hardware products, Also really far more than "PPT artificial intelligence" to fly.
But the smart speakers, is really artificial intelligence technology in place, you can fire up the product?
Speaker intelligence and "time freshness", subject to how many smart appliances can be bound ... ...
Giant's break into the speaker market quickly warming.
January 2017: Baidu joint small fish at home with DuerOS equipped with video intercom robot;
June 2017: Tencent joint digital home release equipped with a small micro "see H2";
July 2017: Ali launched with AliGenie human-computer interaction system "day cat wizard X1".
Giants and speaker manufacturers have card position speaker, more is to reflect the smart home entrance, as well as the determination of large data behind.
But even in the two years began to layout the buzz loudspeaker, three years ago to start the business of Rokid, now in the smart speaker C-end track are not good enough, the reason is not the speaker itself.
On the one hand, the Chinese consumers for the history of traditional speakers left the problem; the other hand, the Chinese consumer's family environment and smart speakers formed a strong contrast, the scene elements are not sufficient, naturally can not just need to form.
And the speaker's sound quality, recognition accuracy and other qualities have nothing to do, smart speakers, "time freshness" depends on how many home you can connect smart appliances. Only when the family has enough intelligent equipment, intelligent speaker "voice control" of the core functions to play a role.
Buy smart speakers do not buy this problem, from the "speakers do good" into "how many smart devices have been consumers," "these smart devices can not connect", and "can not complete a better experience" The
This is with the majority of smart speaker manufacturers to show off and want to show the artificial intelligence technology is actually no relationship, but a simple business problem.
Most of the ordinary peopleat home, there is not so much scalable marginal product. And even if there are enough intelligent hardware "geeks home" is also facing a "stand" problem:
I bought a day cat wizard, not even Jingdong smart air conditioning; I bought a buzzer speaker, not even Ali smart humidifier; I bought a see H2, not even millet of the light.
Over the past three years in the field of intelligent home warfare melee situation, still can use "in a mobile phone installed a bunch of control App" to solve. But manufacturers can not allow users to buy a bunch of smart speakers at home.
On the other hand, want to use a unit price of thousands of smart speakers to bind the user "can only buy a platform for cooperation in home appliances," is also very unrealistic.
Therefore, the Chinese smart speaker "skills" will always be able to stay in the songs, listen to crosstalk, listen to the weather forecast this kind of painless areas of no dispute.
Western fire, not necessarily the fire of the East
November 2014, the smart speaker of the "ancestors" Amazon Echo officially released. You can see so many smart speakers, BAT's fight, are basically derived from this product.
2014 Echo is more focused on the speaker, it is difficult to find it is a family scene of the entrance, not to mention the number of "Fen Tan index"; 2089 Echo someday become a voice-based The platform, according to reports, it has opened more than 10,000 kinds of skills.
Perhaps, after all, see through Jeff Bezos's trick, in Echo released two years later, equipped with Google Assistant Google Home officially available.
So far less than three years, the number of Echo close to 10 million units. According to market research firm eMarketer released the report, the US smart speaker users about 70.6% of the Amazon users, Google accounted for only 23.8%. It is the Amazon starred in this speaker's surprise, ignited the search for new growth point of China's consumer electronics market.
But in great sense, the Chinese speaker market is not just because of the emergence of Echo. 2017 Apple WWDC, Apple officially launched the speaker products HomePod, this product is the main sound quality, not too much emphasis on artificial intelligence and voice assistant.
"Apple's definition of this product is very smart, because the dialogue speaker for ordinary consumers, there is no feeling, but if it is Apple's a speaker product, and the main traditional 'sound quality' concept, may be able to cause more consumption The attention of. "A speaker industry who play on PingWest products.
In fact, he is a natural logic of the problem - from the already "buy speakers" habits, to "have a speaker", and finally accustomed to dialogue with the voice and speakers, which is the Amazon and overseas markets to do the logic of the speaker.
But this and the current market in China emphasizes artificial intelligence products are different - in China, people rarely have a few years to buy a speaker of the habit, it is little time to pay attention to smart speakers; Moreover, artificial intelligence is an obscure Technology, Chinese voice technology itself, there are still some problems.
In other words, the Western world for the speaker is not "lying" like the surprise, it is a natural process of formation - smart speakers from the traditional speakers of this category of natural extension.
The Chinese market, with artificial intelligence for the speaker packaging a concept, forced to the speaker does not need a speaker plug a speaker, it is not the same thing.
Counterpoint Research, an overseas market research firm, has reported that 2 million smart speakers will enter the Chinese market this year, but still less than the 14 million units in the US. We also use Aurora big data ran a domestic market mainstream smart speaker data report, to reflect the current smart speaker user share of the problem:
The main run is currently sold smart speakers app installed capacity, of course, product rank and app release time has a great relationship
As all smart speakers need to be connected with the mobile App when initialized, we can observe the installation of mobile phone App side of the smart speaker level of shipment. From the above data can be seen, the domestic smart speaker product rankings and speakers issued a direct relationship between the time, product rank and app release time has a great relationship, but two years ago released and continued to introduce new buzz loudspeaker (App Called "smart speakers") installed capacity is only about 90,000.
Although this figure is not entirely representative of sales, but from the order of magnitude to fuzzy judgments smart speakers in the past two years the overall popularity even without smart watches high.
Smart speakers in the consumer market, there is no volume.
But how long will it take?
"Giant into the actual good thing, so that more people know that there is such a product exists," "At present to achieve the function is still limited, we will continue to polish the border", "function will be more and more perfect with the product upgrade" , "To be a bit patient to wait for the outbreak of this market ... ..."
This is almost an interview with each speaker company in the "how to treat the Chinese speaker market is not tepid" when the answer.
Speaker business owners and market research institutions believe that the Chinese market to wait until the smart speaker market broke out, may still be to look later next year.
PingWest products also play to statistics, although the BAT platform all in the layout of artificial intelligence and smart speakers, but so far, to reach the hands of consumers in the 10 products.
To know that consumers never pay for technology. This year, AI technology growth is nothing more than to fall on the consumer hardware, there are more hardware used to get more consumers, consumers pay for the product, the product company to pay for the technology, and finally the formation of a benign ring The
In the market has not been the amount of consumer smart speakers for no special concept, the giant involved in the market early consumer education, "boil down" may be each speaker business, manufacturers can give the only answer.
Of course, "boil down" is nothing more than need to support the money - ｏｒ continue to raise the valuation of financing, ｏｒ open ｓｏｕｒｃｅ, to continue to polish the product experience, continue to expandthe application of speakers in the family scene until the speaker market outbreak, Consumer approval.
But the high valuation, low sales, can not realize whether these problems can carry the capital, companies, products and entrepreneurs who do not know when to fire the loudspeaker market? Uncertainty is too much, and the final result is not known.
Those years, the last boiled product ... ...
Speaking of "boil down", and often linked to the smart home, let me think of those who become a technology bubble products.
Two ｏｒ three years ago, intelligent hardware fire wave, but low tide. In essence, the traditional hardware + WiFi was filled with a Smart name, in fact, to the final discovery, is fundamentally a pseudo-demand - people do not want to use a cell phone to control the smart home, and for the public, intelligent hardware acceptance Not high, those companies become a big bubble.
Last year, VR becamethe reason for the bubble, the lack of technology, product application is too narrow, the experience is not good enough; it touches on the high price of the product, the enterprise valuation is too high, too much capital into the entry, all into the entrance, but no export , Also formed a huge bubble;
This year, AI talent has become a bubble of the tendency - talent is too expensive, the enterprise high valuation, but can achieve the specific needs are not proportional, can not reflect the civilian population, can not form a wide range of value, C-side company may Form a bubble;
I would like to draw a focus - those who meet the bubble elements:
A large number of short time to come out - in the speaker on this issue, because the BAT technology platform for the opening, the emergence of a number of technical entrepreneurship, but the overall core technology is still subject to people; a large number of shell products. BAT three all the competition, the last must have cannon fodder, the fall is that those sets of technology shell entrepreneurs.
Investment and output is not proportional - to do a good product, in essence, is a technology output process; do the speaker company, in essence, ｏｒ artificial intelligence company. Technology to fall on the product, so that more consumers feel the value. If only high above the technology, and finally did not bring more consumers, put into the technical energy will become a bubble.
In essence, the dialogue speaker is actually hardware + voice (AI technology). From the current point of view, AI for the voice of the interaction itself is still limited, C-side users do not have a lot of use, has not yet formed a wide range of scene applications.
From the technology mature landing to product applications, if the product is not used by large-scale consumers, there is no continuous "time freshness", perhaps to become a flash in the pan ... ...
In fact, I have a smart speaker
As the practitioners of this industry, my family really has a smart speaker.
A few months ago, I found a smart speaker company founder, a few days before the listing on the purchase of a. On the voice technology to enhance the efficiency of the problem - now I basically developed with this product songs, broadcast news habits, every morning I will say "xxx, play news!", "Xxx, play lyrical music."
So far, it is still a product I think the best product of a company - regardless of the product shape ｏｒ the overall voice technology experience can give a very high "Fence Index", I did develop some voice wake up But it is limited to this, the establishment of smart home part of the Department is not so smooth, it needs me to ｒｅｐｌａｃｅ all the traditional home electrical appliances, ｏｒ to have a directional. Over time, it stopped there, no "freshness", and more like a "traditional speaker."
This reminds me of the first Apple Watch to buy back, I adjusted all the settings, push, but in the end, it is reduced to a daily charge of the "traditional watch."
The fate of the smart speaker may be lying and eating gray smart watches, like the use of the abandoned pity.
Contact: SUHENG AUT
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